Going active. Severe Weather expected in Eastern Oklahoma

Looks like things are beginning to shape up for severe weather today and tonight.  At this point it looks like the severe stuff is going to be in far SE Oklahoma, but right now it’s anyone’s guess.  Here’s what the NWS is saying right now:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
511 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
510 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

…SEVERE WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT…

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
 RISK…ELEVATED.
 AREA…ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
 ONSET…AFTER 3 PM.

 AREA AT GREATEST RISK…SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MCALESTER
        TO FORT SMITH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
 RISK…SIGNIFICANT.
 AREA…ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
 ONSET…AFTER 1 PM.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING.
 RISK…ELEVATED.
 AREA…ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
 ONSET…AFTER 3 PM.

 AREA AT GREATEST RISK…NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

DISCUSSION…
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ALL
TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING TORNADOES…DAMAGING WINDS…
AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON…AND PEAK DURING THE EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  INITIAL STORMS WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST TORNADIC POTENTIAL…WITH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM MCALESTER TO FORT SMITH HAVING THE GREATEST COMBINATION
OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.  AS THE EVENT DEVELOPS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS…A LARGE AND DAMAGING SQUALL LINE IS LIKELY
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA.  A TORNADIC THREAT WILL ALSO
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME…WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER…HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY WITH
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES AMOUNTS EXPECTED WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL RAISE THE RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT…
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
SPOTTER COORDINATION SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS STORM MOTIONS
WILL LIKELY BE 40 MPH OR MORE MAKING SPOTTING DIFFICULT.

graphical hazardous weather outlook
I’m going active today, but the decision to chase won’t be made until later today.  I’ll post an unpdate in a couple of hours.

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