I woke up this morning thinking this is going to be a long day. We do have risks for severe storms today in Oklahoma. The necessary elements are coming together.
Last night I spent several hours reviewing model data and finally came to the conclusion that I needed to wait until this morning to begin pin-pointing the target area. I picked one last night, but I know the target area can shift and shift quickly. Hell, it can move several counties before it becomes real. It’s already moved 50 miles south of my initial target. I know 50 miles doesn’t seem like much, but just a few miles can turn a good chase into a bad one.
This is what I know right now.
The National Weather Service has issued a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms today. That risk does include tornadoes. It’s likely we’ll see a tornado watch this afternoon or early evening.
This is the latest NWS graphic that shows the probability of tornadoes. I’ll be watching to see if they move the highest risk area as the day progresses.
Severe storms are possible after about 4:00 pm, earlier in western Oklahoma. But I think it’ll be after 7:00 pm when the best conditions are in place here in northeast Oklahoma. Since the sun sets a little before 9:00 pm, I’ll have a small window of opportunity.
I’m sure, like the forecast, the timing will adjust throughout the day.
The dryline, which is now in the panhandle, will move eastward through the day. Storms should fire ahead of the dryline. Dew points are already in the upper 60s here. That’s a good sign and one of the elements we need.
I do have a suggestion for you. Get ready if you live in NE Oklahoma or SE Kansas.
- Check the battery in your weather radio and make sure it’s in working order. If it’s not, go buy a new one. Remember: the warning sirens are intended to warn you if you’re outside. You need another warning method if you’re in a structure.
- Clean out your shelter-in-place area. When the alarm sounds is not the time to do it.
- Have important papers, medications, car keys, money and credit cards with you.
- Survey your supplies. Do you have enough food and water to carry you through a prolonged power outage or roads aren’t passable? If not, go to the market.
- And, finally, monitor the NWS, local media outlets and this web site for the the latest updates on storm development.
I’ll post again later today or when something changes significantly.