HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
533 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
533 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011
…MAJOR AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING WINTER STORM TO AFFECT
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY…
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE…TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…NORTHWEST ARKANSAS…SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
ONSET…AROUND MIDNIGHT.
WINTER WEATHER.
SNOW ACCUMULATION.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET…AFTER MIDNIGHT…MAINLY AFTER 3 AM.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN LATER PERIODS.
ICE ACCUMULATION.
RISK…ELEVATED.
AREA…FROM THE OKMULGEE AND MCALESTER AREAS NORTHEAST TO
THE MUSKOGEE AREA AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET…AFTER MIDNIGHT…MAINLY AFTER 3 AM.
SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET…AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DISCUSSION…
A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY…CARVING OUT A PATH OF SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR DAYS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS AN EVER EXPANDING AREA
OF PRECIPITATION BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE.
MEANWHILE…STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL DRAW COLD
AIR SOUTH AND WILL ALLOW FOR A MIXED BAG OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME…IT APPEARS THAT 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
AND SLEET WILL ACCUMULATE BY MORNING OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA…MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44…WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH OF THERE. A BAND OF POTENTIAL ICE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED FROM EAST CENTRAL OK INTO NORTHWEST AR…WHERE UP TO A
QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING.
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE
SOUTH…WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WHAT IS OF MORE IMPORTANCE WILL BE THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS THAT ARE CAUSED BY THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE HEAVY
SNOW…REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT…
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY…WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL…HIGH WIND POTENTIAL…DANGEROUS WIND
CHILL POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY…DANGEROUS WIND CHILL POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY…NO HAZARDS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION…
THE WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER FROM ICE AND SLEET TO ALL
SNOW BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CREATE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44…AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
AS FAR SOUTH AS I-40. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL EXCEED 1 FOOT
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NORTH OF I-44…WITH 5 TO 10 INCHES
EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF A MCALESTER TO FORT SMITH LINE. IN
ADDITION…TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN A QUARTER INCH AND
A HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED FROM EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.
VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY…AS THE
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INTO ARKANSAS. WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 35 MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHICH MAY CREATE WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS AS IT COMBINES WITH THE HEAVY SNOW. WIND CHILLS WILL
ALSO DROP WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATE
TUESDAY.
THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE WINDS…HEAVY SNOW…ICE…AND WIND
CHILLS WILL MAKE IT VERY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING TO BE
OUTSIDE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY…WITH FORECAST VALUES TO APPROACH -15 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT…
EMERGENCY PLANNING SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. THE IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SEVERE AND LIFE THREATENING OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.