I’ve been looking at the models and forecast this evening and it appears likely that we could see a multiple day severe weather event unfold starting Saturday afternoon. I’m still leaning towards Sunday as the most probable day. However, Monday and Tuesday are also becoming increasingly troubling.
The National Weather Service is currently indicating that Sunday will have a slight to moderate risk for severe storms. Slight risks are forecast for Monday and Tuesday.
In tonight’s discussion, the NWS says,
“…ideal for supercell development. Large hail including hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. In addition…a low-level jet is forecast to intensify early Sunday evening which should create low-level shear profiles favorable for tornadoes. A few strong tornadoes may also occur…”
All of the elements will be in place to produce supercell thunderstorms between Sunday and Tuesday. Tornadoes frequently spawn from supercells. Strong winds, heavy rain, hail and lightning are also risks we should watch for out of any storms that develop.
Timing of the event on Sunday will likely be late afternoon into the overnight hours. I hope to narrow down both the target area and the window sometime late tomorrow or early on Sunday.
The severe weather possibilities will begin on Saturday in western Oklahoma. A moderate risk has been identified.
You still have time to prepare for this event. Make sure your weather radio has fresh batteries and is in working order, clear your shelter-in-place area, and prepare your survival kit. With any severe weather, power outages are possible and residents should be prepared for outages lasting from a few hours to a few days. Have fresh batteries in your flashlights and battery operated lanterns. DO NOT USE CANDLES or other open flame devices for light during a power outage.
At this point I’m planning to chase on Sunday. Hopefully you’ll follow me through the day and evening. I may chase again on Monday and Tuesday, if the forecast holds true.
I’ll post an update when the forecast tightens up.
The spring storms are finally getting here. Let’s get ready for them.